This is an email I sent to a friend who sent me a great article about economic theory. I thought you might enjoy it. It pretty much sums up my feeling about experts.

Here is a link to the article

Here is the email.

The problem with economics as a science is that is studied by mathematicians and not psychologists and experts in mob behavior.

Economists are in search of the holy grail of steady predictable growth with little inflation or unemployment.

Systems involving humans do not function that way.

They are always cyclical, not linear.

Bubbles and recessions will NEVER be stopped.

The business cycle and the field of economics is dominated by two things and two things only.

Fear and greed.

Fear brings recessions and greed brings bubbles.

The Efficient Market Theory is a big crock of shit.

The markets are efficient in a sense in that they will always become overheated and then overcorrect.

Financial markets will always function like a drunk weaving down the highway.

Economists and politicians want to ruin the fun by keeping the drunk driving straight but the drunk is incapable of doing it.

In the short term the markets function as a casino or a voting machine.

In the long term the markets function more as a scale that determines value rather efficiently but only in the long run.

The role of economists and government should be to moderate the bubbles and the recessions, not prevent them.

When you try to prevent a recession you allow the markets to overheat and that is what leads to recessions.

If there is one thing this recent economic crisis has done, it has convinced me that my own judgment is as sound if not sounder than anyone else in the world including any Nobel peace prize winning scientist.

This is not to say that I am always right, far from it.

All I’m saying is that others are equally wrong no matter how many degrees or awards they have.

The belief that other people have better judgment than you leads you to doubt your own mind .

This is why so many people turn off their brains and go with the herds…which leads to bubbles and recessions.

Alan Greenspan has even acknowledged as much.

He said that of all the economic data he is capable of ingesting, if he could just get a “fear” index, he would be a better economist.